Trade Expectancy Calculator
Calculate your trading system's expectancy to determine if it's profitable long-term.
Trading Statistics
⚡ Results update automatically as you type
Expectancy Results
Your win rate (55%) is 15% above breakeven (40%)
Performance Summary
Understanding Trade Expectancy
What is Expectancy?
Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade. A positive expectancy means your system is profitable over time.
Profit Factor
Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. A PF above 1.0 is profitable. Most successful traders aim for PF of 1.5 or higher.
Why It Matters
Expectancy tells you if your strategy has an edge. Even a 40% win rate can be profitable with the right risk-reward ratio.
📊 Expectancy Examples
| Win Rate | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Expectancy | Profit Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | $300 | $100 | +$20 | 1.29 |
| 40% | $200 | $100 | +$20 | 1.33 |
| 50% | $150 | $100 | +$25 | 1.50 |
| 55% | $150 | $100 | +$37.50 | 1.83 |
| 60% | $100 | $100 | +$20 | 1.50 |
| 50% | $100 | $100 | $0 | 1.00 |
| 40% | $100 | $100 | -$20 | 0.67 |
📐 Expectancy Formulas
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss) Profit Factor = (Win Rate × Avg Win) / (Loss Rate × Avg Loss) Breakeven Win Rate = Avg Loss / (Avg Win + Avg Loss) Expectancy = (0.55 × $150) - (0.45 × $100)
Expectancy = $82.50 - $45 = +$37.50 per trade
Profit Factor = $82.50 / $45 = 1.83
Frequently Asked Questions
What is expectancy in forex trading?
Expectancy is the average amount you expect to win or lose per trade over time. It's calculated as: (Win Rate × Average Win) - (Loss Rate × Average Loss). Positive expectancy means your trading system is profitable long-term. Our expectancy calculator helps you evaluate any trading strategy.
How do I calculate trading expectancy?
Use the formula: Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). For example: 55% win rate, $150 avg win, $100 avg loss = (0.55 × $150) - (0.45 × $100) = $82.50 - $45 = +$37.50 per trade. Our expectancy calculator computes this instantly.
What is a good trading expectancy?
Any positive expectancy means your system is profitable. However, consider trade frequency too. An expectancy of $10 per trade with 100 trades/month ($1,000/month) beats $50 per trade with only 5 trades/month ($250/month). Use our expectancy calculator to evaluate your strategy.
What profit factor should I aim for?
A profit factor above 1.0 is profitable (you make more than you lose). 1.5+ is good, 2.0+ is excellent. Very high profit factors (3.0+) are usually not sustainable or indicate small sample size. Most successful traders have profit factors between 1.3 and 2.5.
How many trades do I need for reliable expectancy?
You need at least 30-50 trades for basic statistical significance, but 100+ trades is better for reliable expectancy calculations. Be cautious of results from fewer than 20 trades as they may not represent true system performance.
Can I have low win rate but still be profitable?
Absolutely! Trend-following systems often have 30-40% win rates but are profitable because winners are much larger than losers. A 35% win rate with 3:1 R:R has positive expectancy. Focus on expectancy, not just win rate alone.
What's the relationship between R:R and win rate in expectancy?
They're inversely related for breakeven. Higher R:R targets typically result in lower win rates but can still be profitable. Breakeven formula: Win Rate = 1 / (1 + R:R). For 1:2 R:R, breakeven is 33.33%. Our expectancy calculator shows this relationship.
How do I improve my trading expectancy?
Improve expectancy by: 1) Increasing win rate through better entry timing, 2) Increasing average win by letting winners run, 3) Decreasing average loss with tighter risk management, 4) Filtering out low-probability setups. Use our expectancy calculator to test improvements.
What is breakeven win rate?
Breakeven win rate is the minimum win rate needed to not lose money given your average win/loss ratio. Formula: Breakeven Win Rate = Avg Loss / (Avg Win + Avg Loss). Our expectancy calculator shows this metric to help you understand your strategy's requirements.
Why is expectancy better than win rate alone?
Win rate alone doesn't tell the full story. A 70% win rate with small wins and large losses can be unprofitable, while 40% win rate with large wins and small losses can be very profitable. Expectancy combines both factors for the true picture of trading performance.